Because the Andes model of hantavirus continues to trigger concern amongst well being officers, the music business is monitoring what’s being known as “blue dot fever.”
It’s nothing organic, nor will or not it’s the reason for the following lockdown, however it’s of concern.
The situation will get its title from on-line Ticketmaster seating charts for live shows at venues throughout North America. A blue dot signifies an unsold seat, and a fast survey of summer time live shows options quite a lot of gigs that appear like a foul case of Smurf measles.
For the couple of years instantly following COVID, enterprise for the touring finish of the music business surged as we made up for misplaced time throughout the shut-in interval in 2020-21. We known as it “funflation,” a wave of spending on issues that hadn’t been in a position to do.
Live performance revenues exploded, with 145 million individuals attending gigs in 2023, in comparison with 98 million in 2019, earlier than the pandemic. Final 12 months, the worldwide marketplace for live performance tickets was value US$25.4 billion as stadiums and arenas worldwide had been stuffed to capability. And as 2026 began, predictions had been that this is able to be one other banner 12 months.
As an alternative, we now have blue dot fever, which, in some circumstances, has confirmed not simply debilitating however deadly.
The Publish Malone-Jelly Roll tour has been scaled again as a consequence of poor ticket gross sales. Pussycat Dolls pulled all their North American dates on their reunion tour. Zayn Malik deserted all of the American enviornment dates he had booked. Meghan Trainor cancelled her whole Get In Woman Tour. Child Rock’s Freedom 250 tour hasn’t met expectations.
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We could but hear of extra excursions collapsing. What’s happening? Weren’t we simply complaining that nobody might get a ticket to a present?
The financial system
When costs spike and inflation roars, the very first thing that will get lower is discretionary spending. Gasoline costs are manner up, client confidence is down, employment stays shaky, and geopolitics make it unattainable to foretell the place issues are going from week to week. Corners must be lower.
The price of live performance tickets
In line with Pollstar, the bible of the touring business, the common ticket worth to see a high 100 touring artist in North America is US$134.23. That’s down 1.6 per cent from final 12 months, however it’s nonetheless costly. Globally, the common worth is US$132.62. And if we have a look at stadium reveals, the common worth is US$216.13, a whopping 18.3 per cent increased than final 12 months and 29 per cent increased than in 2023.
When the financial system was cooking, you would make a case for spending that form of cash. In the present day, not a lot. And as soon as once more, Ticketmaster doesn’t set the value of live performance tickets. The face worth of a ticket is decided by the artist and the artist alone, basing it on how a lot the tour will value to stage and the way a lot cash they hope to make.
The one manner Ticketmaster makes any cash is by charging a price for its service. It will get nothing from the bottom worth of a ticket. Hate all of them you need, however Ticketmaster shouldn’t be the issue right here.
Thinning revenue margins
Regardless of excessive ticket costs, margins that had been razor skinny to start with are getting thinner, due to the excessive value of touring. Power costs aren’t serving to. It prices loads to maintain a fleet of vehicles on the street and diesel is in a worse spot than gasoline. When promoters, managers, and artists run revenue and loss projections, they’re discovering that dates should be trimmed and venues downsized. In excessive circumstances, it’s higher to only name off your entire tour.
Take the case of Welsh band, Los Campesinos!, who supplied a current accounting lesson in touring. They performed 11 reveals in America, promoting out all however one, averaging round US$21,000 per gig. Gross income was US$127,729.53, however after prices, commissions, taxes, visa charges, and unbudgeted bills had been deducted, the band returned residence to Wales US$2,824.98 within the pink. And it is a band that didn’t endure from blue dot fever.
Over-optimistic promoters, expertise consumers, and managers
Each tour is a chance. When 2026 excursions had been being deliberate, there was no US-Iran battle, gasoline costs had been secure, inflation wasn’t too unhealthy, and employment was regular. So why wouldn’t the upward tendencies of 2023-25 proceed? Swing for the fences!
However the second world affairs started to get wonky, the economics of those excursions modified. Jam up the Strait of Hormuz and what appeared like a positive factor throughout the planning levels in September-October-November of final 12 months out of the blue seems to be like a shedding proposition. Do you robust it out and hope for the perfect? Cut back? Cancel?
Stiff competitors
Loads of acts are as soon as once more on the street this 12 months, however given the present state of economics, persons are selecting and selecting their spots. If, for instance, you’re a superfan, you’ll nonetheless discover a wait to scrape collectively $1,000 for a premium seat to see your favorite artists. That doesn’t go away a lot to spend on different reveals. Perhaps the World Cup and its 104 matches throughout North America is hurting live performance ticket gross sales. I imply, have you ever seen what it’s important to shell out to get into a few of these video games? Then once more, there are experiences of blue dots there, too, due to excessive costs, the steep value of transportation and motels in host cities, and uncertainty about abroad followers navigating ICE in America.
The large acts will do tremendous. They all the time do as a result of followers will all the time, all the time discover the cash. However under that higher crust, issues are undoubtedly wanting very blue. At the least thus far.
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